The November Elections Are Near – Where Do The Democrats Stand?
Posted by Michelle Moquin on September 9th, 2010
For awhile now I have been getting more concerned over the November elections, and I have rarely mentioned it here. Is everyone with me when it comes to keeping the Democrats in the house and the senate? (George and the like: You know I’m not addressing you.) Do you still have the inspiration and momentum going? Because if you feel like your momentum has dwindled and your energy has taken a dive, the time is now to get it going again.
The Republicans are counting on the Dems to lose their drive, their momentum, and as we are all aware of the Republicans are coming out strong. They don’t like where we stand and they are doing everything they can to “take back their country.” What are you going to do to stop them? Ranting and raving is not enough, and believe me, we’ll be ranting and raving even more-so if we lose seats. We can’t let that happen.
I was just looking at the polls here in California, and Fiorina is just too close in the running with Boxer in the senate race. Not to mention Whitman who I think is slightly ahead of Brown in the Polls in the race for Governor. Fiorina and Whitman are two women that I dread having in any political positions here in California. What about your state? Is there anyone you’re dreading? If so, what are you doing to prevent their success?
Here’s a look at the latest:
Poll Update: Senate Remains In Play
With less than nine weeks remaining until Election Day, control of the U.S. Senate remains in play, as Republicans hold meaningful leads in five states currently held by Democrats, with six more Democratic seats remaining in our “toss-up” category. Since our last update two weeks ago, new polls have nudged our polling averages in a slightly more Republican direction in the more competitive states, particularly Florida, Kentucky, California and Washington.
Remember that to win an absolute majority in the Senate, the Republicans need to gain at least 9 seats (although as several Pollster and HuffPost commenters have pointed out, a gain of 8 seats would leave the Democratic majority dependent on vote of not always reliable Joe Lieberman).
Currently, Republican candidates hold strong double-digit leads in four states now represented by Democrats: North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana and Delaware. The Delaware margin assumes that Mike Castle wins next week’s Republican primary. Democratic hopes there will brighten considerably should Republican Tea Party candidate Christine O’Donnell prevail, as two recent polls show she would trail Democrat Chris Coons.
Six seats currently held by Democrats remain in our toss-up category:
- In Colorado, our most recent trend estimate shows Republican Ken Buck with a slim 3.3 point advantage (46.1% to 42.8%), over Democratic Senator Michael Bennet, although the two most recent polls point in opposite directions: The most recent Rasmussen Reports tracker gives Buck a four-point lead, while a survey conducted by a bi-partisan team of campaign pollsters gives Bennet a 3-point advantage.
- In Washington state, two recent automated surveys by SurveyUSA and Rasmussen show Republican challenger Dino Rossi narrowly but not significantly ahead of Democratic Senator Patty Murray. Rossi’s 1.9 point edge (49.7% to 47.8%) on our trend estimate is slightly improved, but leaves Washington very much in the toss-up category.
- California has also seen two new automated surveys in the last week from Rasmussen and Survey USA both showing Republican challenger Carly Fiorina deadlocked with Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer. Our trend estimate now shows Boxer with an advantage of less than one percentage point (46.8% to 46.2%), an edge that has narrowed roughly two points over the last two weeks.
- All of the recent pubic polling in Wisconsin comes from Rasmussen Reports, which has shown a deadlocked race between Senator Russ Feingold and his Republican challenger Ron Johnson. Johnson’s less than one-point margin on our trend estimate (47.3% to 46.0%) mirrors those results.
- In Illinois, a new live-interviewer survey by the Chicago Tribune confirms the results of the most recent Rasmussen automated survey. Both show Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Mark Kirk tied. Our trend estimate gives Giannoulias a two-point edge (39.7% to 37.7%)
- In Nevada, two recent surveys by Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen both show Democrat Harry Reid with non-significant leads of 3 and 1 percentage points respectively. Our trend estimate gives Reid a 3.4 point advantage (48.6% to 45.2%), mostly because Reid has led nominally on 8 of 10 surveys conducted since July.
- Of the seats currently held by Republicans, only Florida remains in our toss-up category, and there our trend estimate shows Republican Marco Rubio with a 3.1 point advantage over Republican-turned-independent Charlie Crist (37.1% to 34.0%) with Democrat Kendrick Meek running a distant third (16.6%)
Two week ago, our trend estimate put Kentucky in the toss-up category, but two new recent polls by Survey USA and Kentucky cable news channel CN2 put Republican Rand Paul leading Democrat Jack Conway by margins of 15 and 5 points respectively. Our trend estimate now shows Paul leading by 5.3 points (44.9% to 39.6%), enough to shift Kentucky to lean Republican.
All tallied, we currently show 48 seats leaning or currently held by Democrats (including the two independents that caucus with the Democrats), and 45 seats leaning or currently held by Republicans. Thus, control of the U.S. Senate rests on the outcome of the seven contests now now in the toss-up category: Colorado, Washington, California, Wisconsin, Illinois, Nevada and Florida.
UPDATE: The original version of this post misstated the leader on our Illinois Senate trend estimate.
Readers: Did you check out the charts included in the article? There’s too much RED in those charts above. This should be an eye-opener to do something. I frequently check out Obama’s site so I can see where I can best help. I am a person who loves getting in the mix with my neighbors in Oakland and making phone calls. It is so rewarding to talk to people and hear their commitment that they are not only going to the polls to vote, but they are voting for and excited about the Democrats.
This video is a strategy update from David Plouff:
Republicans believe they have a lot of reasons to feel optimistic this fall.
They have made it clear what their goal is — take control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, and roll back everything we’ve accomplished so far. Of the hundreds of races, control of both chambers could come down to just a few key contests decided by a handful of votes.
That’s where you come in. Barack Obama was only elected president because of the work that you did — and we’ll only be able to keep moving America forward if we work together to do it again.
As Plouff says, the difference between a win and a loss can be as simple as a phone call. There are only 53 day left before the November 2nd elections. The Republicans, in my opinion, are way too close for comfort. The election could swing their way if they continue as they are doing, and we Dems get lazy.
I don’t want to win by just a few votes; I want a landslide. And don’t think that if the Republicans can sway the election and steal it they will. We know they are determined and ruthless. I want to show the Republicans just where all of their lies and rhetoric will get them: No where. It’s time to find an event near you, get involved and participate in the future of your country. Are you with me? Blog me. Tell me what you’re going to do.
And do it.
***********
Lucy2: Cute that you added the “2″. :) Sorry that I am responding to you a day late. I had an early out this morning so I prearranged for my blog to post early this morning, the evening before. I would love to chat with you about my blog. It is never too late, so please don’t be embarrassed.
Peace out….
Lastly, greed over a great story is surfacing from my “loyal”(?) readers. With all this back and forth about who owns what, that appears on my blog, let me reiterate that all material posted on my blog becomes the sole property of my blog. If you want to reserve any proprietary rights don’t post it to my blog. I will prominently display this caveat on my blog from now on to remind those who may have forgotten this notice.
Gratefully your blog host,
michelle
Aka BABE: We all know what this means by now :)
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September 9th, 2010 at 10:12 am
Natural Ways to Power Up Your Brain
Daniel G. Amen, MD
American Psychiatric Association
You can improve your memory, energy, productivity and general well-being throughout your entire life by developing everyday habits that are good for your brain…
Get exercise that requires quick movements. Exercise increases blood flow to the brain, ensuring a healthy supply of oxygen and the nutrients on which the brain depends.
Insufficient blood flow can lead to poor coordination and difficulty processing complex thoughts.
Exercise also increases the supply of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), a protein that helps with the creation of new cells.
A recent study of people in their 70s found that those who exercised moderately or vigorously at least once a week were 30% more likely to maintain their cognitive skills than people who exercised less often.
Any type of exercise is good, but the ideal exercise for a healthy brain combines an aerobic workout with complex movements requiring quick reactions.
Examples: Dancing, tennis, table tennis, racquetball and juggling.
Eat berries, beans and salmon. Be sure that your diet includes…
Fruits and vegetables. Antioxidants in fruits and vegetables fight damage from free radicals — unstable molecules that damage cells, contribute to aging and promote inflammation, which is a factor in Alzheimer’s disease. Berries are particularly rich in antioxidants.
Complex carbohydrates — such as cooked dried beans and whole grains. The brain uses sugar as its main energy source. Complex carbohydrates release sugar slowly.
In contrast, white bread and other refined starches and sugars cause dramatic spikes and drops in blood sugar, leading to concentration problems and fatigue.
Cold-water fish. Any lean protein, including chicken and lean pork, helps build neurons. Salmon, cod and other cold-water fish have the added benefit of providing omega-3 fatty acids, which play an important role in maintaining nerve cell membranes.
Other sources of these healthy fats are avocados, nuts and olive oil.
Boost vitamin D. Vitamin D is believed to play a role in mood and memory. A recent study published in Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry and Neurology found a possible association between dementia and low levels of vitamin D.
The best source of vitamin D is sunlight — at least 15 minutes a day without sunscreen. If you spend most of the day indoors or live in a northern latitude, take a supplement with 400 international units (IU) of vitamin D daily.
Avoid food additives, such as monosodium glutamate, and artificial sweeteners, such as aspartame. Though studies are inconclusive, anecdotal evidence suggests that these additives may have a hyperstimulating effect, causing confusion and/or mood swings.
Limit caffeine and alcohol. Caffeine and alcohol reduce blood flow to the brain, depriving cells of nutrients and energy. Both can interfere with sleep, which is essential to healthy brain activity.
Both also can be dehydrating — the brain is 80% water, so anything that dehydrates has the potential to cause problems in thinking.
One or two cups of coffee or tea a day are harmless and enhance alertness, but heavy caffeine consumption — more than 500 milligrams (mg) to 600 mg a day, or about four to seven cups of coffee — should be avoided.
Alcohol has additional dangers — it blocks oxygen from reaching cells’ energy centers and reduces the effectiveness of neurotransmitters involved in learning and memory.
Heavy drinkers — people who consume four or more alcoholic drinks a day — have a higher risk for dementia.
Some people drink wine daily because of evidence that it may be good for the heart. However, there are other ways to help the heart — such as exercise and diet — that don’t put the brain at risk.
If you are accustomed to having a drink every day, consider cutting back to one or two drinks a week.
Avoid airborne toxins.
Fumes from paint, pesticides and other chemicals have been associated with brain damage. If you are exposed to strong fumes — for example, while painting the interior of your house or having your nails done — be sure that the area is well-ventilated.
Don’t smoke, and avoid being in rooms where others are smoking.
Oddly, smoking can make you feel smarter by stimulating the release of neurotransmitters that improve reaction reaction time, but nicotine constricts blood vessels, reducing blood flow and depriving the brain of nutrients.
Don’t overdo electronic interaction. Computers, mobile devices and other electronic tools can interfere with optimal brain function in several ways.
They have an addictive quality, stimulating release of the neurotransmitter dopamine, which acts on the brain’s pleasure centers. Over time, greater amounts of dopamine are required to get the same pleasurable feeling.
E-mail and text-messaging can interfere with concentration, encouraging a state of mind that is alert to the next distraction, rather than focused on the task at hand.
One study at London University found a temporary IQ loss of 10 points in people who constantly checked for messages during the day.
Best: Process e-mail and text messages at set times of day, not as each message comes in. Take frequent breaks away from the computer.
Protect your skull. The brain is very soft. The hard skull that covers it has many ridges that can damage the brain during trauma. Yet people are astonishingly careless with this precious organ.
Take precautions to protect yourself from head injury. Stabilize ladders carefully. Use nonslip mats in the bathtub and shower.
Keep the floor in your house and the pathways outside it clear of debris that could cause you to trip and fall. If you bicycle or ski, be sure to wear a helmet.
Manage stress. Long-term exposure to high levels of the stress hormone cortisol is associated with a smaller-sized hippocampus — the brain area involved with memory — and with poor performance on memory tests.
Cope with stress by finding daily activities that calm you, such as exercise, meditation, prayer or yoga.
During difficult times, focus on what you are grateful for and talk things out with someone who can help you keep an optimistic perspective.
Bottom Line/Personal interviewed Daniel G. Amen, MD, Distinguished Fellow of the American Psychiatric Association and CEO and medical director of Amen Clinics, Inc., headquartered in Newport Beach, California, http://www.amenclinics.com.
He is assistant clinical professor of psychiatry and human behavior at University of California, Irvine, School of Medicine, and his work has been the basis of several PBS specials. Dr. Amen is author of many books, including Change Your Brain, Change Your Body (Harmony).
September 9th, 2010 at 10:16 am
Great article Michelle.
Let’s hope it stimulates Democrats to get out and vote. Apathy in one election could mean decades of lost progress because of who those republicans appoint as our judges and the laws that they enact.
Those actions remain around screwing up our lives long after the politicians themselves have been ousted.
Robert
September 9th, 2010 at 10:26 am
This was sent to me this morning. One of Beck’s followers, no doubt! You apparently have time on your hands… Peace
{I tried to enter it here as it came to me but it would not print. So you will have to copy this and put it in your Browser: http://fc01.deviantart.com/fs13/f/2007/077/2/e/Animator_vs__Animation_by_alanbecker.swf
This is what happens on your computer if you leave it on overnight. You will LOVE this; it’s very creative.
Just click on the picture above, click on play, then leave the mouse alone , sit back and enjoy a piece of creative brilliance.
I wonder who had ‘time’ to do this.
September 10th, 2010 at 8:09 am
When it comes to health care, it is important to start with one basic premise: we must move forward, toward secure and universal access to health care, not backward.
Through the historic health care reform law passed this year, our nation made major progress in reducing the number of uninsured Americans. This is an accomplishment to be lauded, not halted. However, Steve Cooley has pledged to join the Attorneys General of states like Alabama, Mississippi, and Texas in suing the federal government in order to turn back the clock on our health care system.
Watch this video from Speaker Nancy Pelosi on the importance of the Attorney General’s race, and the repercussions of my opponent’s position on health care.
We simply cannot afford to allow Steve Cooley to move California backward. Please join me in supporting the dedicated efforts of Speaker Pelosi and others in this long health care fight, and work with me to ensure that the health care law stands.
September 10th, 2010 at 8:38 am
Zen Lill
How long before we get the head shots you promised. I’m setting here with an unfinished jigsaw puzzle that desperately needs a head..
One fine blond one.
Owen
September 10th, 2010 at 8:45 am
Michelle my problem is that I am so busy that at least once a week me and my three kids have to eat out.
When we do we have money issues that dictate our choices. That’s why reading this was so germane to me.
=========================
McStatins on the fast food menus?
It’s like super-sized magic!
British researchers say you can now safely gulp down a gut- busting fast-food meal anytime you want. In fact, it’s practically health food now.
And all you have to do is swallow a little pill with your milkshake.
But this isn’t some new wonderdrug. Nope–the med they want you to take is a cholesterol-lowering statin.
I’ve always said that the mainstream goal is to get absolutely everyone on cholesterol meds… and now, all the proof you need can be found in the pages of the American Journal of Cardiology, where researchers lamented the fact that statins are still a prescription drug.
That’s because they want restaurant chains to serve up McMeds with every meal, no doctor necessary.
The research team even came up with a formula simple enough for any minimum wage teenage fast food worker/pharmacist to understand: One statin will cancel out the effects of a burger and a milkshake.
I take you’ll need a second one if you want fries–and maybe a third if you supersize it.
And don’t worry about the price–they’ve figured that one out, too: roughly 8 cents per meal, which they say is in line with a ketchup packet.
But the cost of making hundreds of millions of people sicker than ever by encouraging them to eat fast food while taking dangerous drugs: Priceless.
Especially for Big Pharma.
Statins are already some of the most successful meds in all history–making them available prescription-free with every item on the dollar menu would keep the gravy train running for generations.
But as many of the people who’ve taken these meds can attest, they’re all risk and no reward.
Dr. Donald Light, professor of comparative health policy at the University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey, said at a recent meeting of the American Sociological Association that a thorough review of the research finds that statins neither reduce the risk of heart attack nor help people live longer.
You might even say that these meds are a genuine twofer– because in addition to being utterly ineffective, they’re also far more dangerous than your doctor will ever admit.
They come with a risk of debilitating muscle pain and even permanent muscle damage, kidney failure, and even cataracts.
So if you’re really interested in staying healthy and winning the cholesterol battle, do yourself a favor–stay off these meds.
===================
What will they think of next?
Crissy
September 10th, 2010 at 8:56 am
China is probing the US to see how far they can push the weakened super power. China means to take by Taiwan. It also feels that it has old scores to settle with Japan.
So it is plotting to create an international incident in the East China Sea area.
Zayra
September 10th, 2010 at 8:59 am
AB 1718 LEGISLATIVE ALERT:
Help Disabled Californians Remain in Their Homes
Dear friend,
Thousands of disabled and older Californians need your help to continue living in their own homes. The suspension of the California Senior and Disabled Citizens Property Tax Postponement Program in 2009 leaves these individuals vulnerable to eviction and foreclosure.
Please call Governor Schwarzenegger today and urge him to sign AB 1718 (Blumenfield), the Senior and Disabled Property Tax Postponement bill.
Assembly Bill 1718 (Blumenfield) would allow counties to opt in and defer property taxes for the disabled, as well as eligible low and moderate income older homeowners. Taxes would later be collected upon death, sale or transfer of the property.
To be connected directly to the Governor, dial toll free 1-800-764-5755. You will hear a message about the bill and then be prompted to convey your support for AB 1718. Tell the Governor this is the right thing to do because it maintains the security and dignity of thousands of older Californians.
September 10th, 2010 at 9:14 am
[...] Robert: Thanks. And good observation. [...]
April 24th, 2013 at 1:15 am
Thanks for finally talking about > Michelle Moquin’s “A day in the life of” Blog Archive The November Elections Are Near – Where Do The Democrats Stand? < Loved it!